Bitcoin unsure as recession looms, US-China tariff talks kick off
By: cryptosheadlines|2025/05/02 22:30:02
0
Share
Airdrop Is Live CaryptosHeadlines Media Has Launched Its Native Token CHT. Airdrop Is Live For Everyone, Claim Instant 5000 CHT Tokens Worth Of $50 USDT. Join the Airdrop at the official website, CryptosHeadlinesToken.com Bitcoin’s recovery to its all-time high may be threatened by rising recession fears, which could ease if the United States and China begin tariff negotiations this month, research analysts told Cointelegraph.Appetite for global risk assets such as Bitcoin (BTC) may take another hit, with analysts from Apollo Global Management predicting a recession by the summer.“Apollo predicting Summer Recession: Sharpest decline in earnings outlook since 2020,” cross-asset analyst Samantha LaDuc wrote in an April 26 X post.The progress on the tariff negotiations may be the most significant factor impacting a potential recession and Bitcoin’s price trajectory, according to Aurelie Barthere, principal research analyst at crypto intelligence platform Nansen.Source: Samantha LaDuc“May is seen as pivotal as Chinese shipments reach the US’s shores, and exemptions on some tariff categories such as auto parts and sub-USD-800 shipments from China/ Hong Kong expire,” Barthere told Cointelegraph, adding that a lack of negotiations in May could lead to an economic recession and “double-digit losses” for Bitcoin.However, this is the least likely scenario, since neither China nor the US “ has an economic interest in the interruption of bilateral trade,” Barthere said, adding:“Given this, the main tariff scenario is for the US reaching deals or at least ‘agreements in principle’ with its main trade partners, probably settling around the 10% reciprocal tariff ‘floor’.”If that scenario plays out and trade tensions ease in May, Bitcoin is likely to revisit its all-time high, Barthere said. The US has “proactively reached out to China through multiple channels,” for signaling its openness for tariff negotiations, Reuters reported on May 1, citing unnamed sources who spoke to state-affiliated Chinese media platform Yuyuan Tantian.Related: Bitcoin treasury firms driving $200T hyperbitcoinization — Adam BackBitcoin may rally despite recessionWhile most analysts hope to see trade negotiations in May alleviate economic concerns, Bitcoin may see more upside even in the face of a potential recession.“Initially, Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies may experience volatility, dropping alongside risk assets like stocks due to investor sell-offs,” Anndy Lian, author and intergovernmental blockchain adviser, told Cointelegraph, adding:“Historical data, such as Bitcoin’s recovery post-2020 recession, suggests it could rebound, especially if seen as a hedge against inflation.”“In stagflation (high inflation and slow growth), Bitcoin, often compared to gold, may perform well, attracting investors seeking value preservation. Yet, its increased correlation with the stock market, particularly tech stocks, introduces uncertainty,” said Lian, adding that crypto investors should continue monitoring economic policy shifts to gauge market direction.BTC/USD, 1-week chart, 2020-2021. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingViewHowever, Bitcoin’s increasing correlation with tech stocks adds uncertainty to that outlook. Following the COVID-19 crash in March 2020, Bitcoin surged more than 1,050%, climbing from $6,000 to an all-time high of $69,000 in November 2021. That rally came after the Federal Reserve launched its $4 trillion asset purchase program in March 2020.Related: Bitcoin to $1M by 2029 fueled by ETF and gov’t demand — Bitwise execOther industry watchers remain concerned by the crypto market’s response to economic stagnation.“If the analysts are correct about the recession (which is certainly not guaranteed), crypto markets will likely decline alongside broader risk-on assets and equities,” according to Marcin Kazmierczak, co-founder and chief operating officer of blockchain oracle firm RedStone.Kazmierczak said April’s “Liberation Day tariffs and trucking slowdown could create economic contagion that historically hits speculative assets hardest.” “While crypto’s growing institutional adoption introduces some uncertainty, it’s not enough to overcome the fundamental risk-on classification that still dominates market behavior,” he added.Magazine: Altcoin season to hit in Q2? Mantra’s plan to win trust: Hodler’s Digest, April 13 – 19Source link
You may also like

The AI gamble of mining companies: Valuations enter a phase of differentiation, and it's hard to turn the tide
This gamble of transforming into AI is testing the financial strength and execution capability of mining companies.

A letter from Alliance to entrepreneurs: Written on the occasion of Cursor selling for 60 billion dollars
Great companies are forged before they become obvious.

Stablecoins Finally Find Real Returns: On-Chain Reinsurance Re Explained | Interview with Re Founder Karan Saroya
This on-chain reinsurance platform absorbs stablecoins from DeFi, uses them as collateral to underwrite for American insurance companies, collects premiums, and returns the profits to on-chain depositors.

The impossible triangle is simply a pseudo problem
A long time ago, the cryptocurrency industry found its true purpose. But ironically, the path it built for this purpose excluded almost everyone who would actually use it.

Will MicroStrategy fall into a death spiral? What will the macro trend be in the second half of the year?
The cryptocurrency industry may gradually shift from the hype of native altcoins to real asset tokenization, on-chain machine economy, and a more mature industrialization phase.

Blockchain Capital Partner: The Core Secret of Arbitrage
On cold starts, breaking the circle, and the toughest hurdle for founders to overcome.

STRC unanchored by 11%, can the perpetual motion machine of Strategy still operate?
Beyond the leverage crunch, what is even more concerning is the liquidity reserves of the Strategy.

Bitcoin Market Analysis 2026: Can BTC Reach $150K by Year-End?
Bitcoin price prediction 2026: Can BTC hit $150,000 by year-end? Explore Fed policy, Kevin Warsh's stance, Bitcoin ETF flows, exchange data, and BTC market forecasts.

Bitcoin ETF Outflows Hit a Record $4.4 Billion: What Are Traders Doing With Their Cash?
Bitcoin ETFs lost $4.4 billion over 13 trading days, raising questions about market sentiment and Bitcoin's bottom. Here's what Standard Chartered is watching and how traders are managing idle stablecoin balances during uncertain markets.

WEEX App Just Got Smarter – New Tabs for Faster Trades & Easy Asset Management
Discover WEEX App’s new trading tabs: Futures, TradFi, Copy Trade (users)/ Elite Trade (lead traders) on the same page. Solve messy navigation, find opportunities faster, and manage all trades in one place.

WEEX All-New Search Features: Find, Trade & Earn Faster Than Ever
Supercharged search is here! Discover WEEX’s upgraded Search features with hot events, new listings, live market sentiment, and one-click trading. Trade smarter, seize every opportunity.

Morning Report | Illinois signs the strictest digital asset tax law in the U.S.; RWA tokenization market size surpasses $43 billion, institutions accelerate the migration of on-chain assets
Overview of Important Market Events on June 17

Full version of the debut Q&A! Federal Reserve Chairman Waller: Sticking to the 2% inflation target, establishing five special working groups, individual did not submit the dot plot
Federal Reserve Chairman Waller's debut featured a significant slimming statement, the cancellation of forward guidance, refusal to submit the dot plot, and the establishment of five working groups, vowing to uphold the 2% inflation target, which triggered a sharp decline in U.S. stocks and a surge ...

From Disruptor to Shadow Market: The Crypto Market is Becoming a Colony of Traditional Finance
"Coin-stock linkage" has evolved from the early stage of macro correlation and one-way penetration of emotional funds to the current 3.0 stage, where on-chain perpetual contracts provide extended trading hours and emotional signal value for traditional assets 24/7, and participate in Pre-IPO pricing...

Dalio's important long article: How to position in the current market environment?
Do not confuse the excitement for new technologies with whether those tech stocks are attractive.

OKX Star analyzes Binance's competitive advantages: when regulation levels the playing field, competition has just begun
OKX founder Star published a lengthy article, systematically analyzing Binance's competitive advantages over the years: regulatory arbitrage, speculative narrative cycles, social media control, and superficial compliance, stating that the essence of these advantages is not product capability, but ra...

New gameplay for participating in initial offerings on cryptocurrency exchanges
In this competition for cutting-edge assets, what has always been truly scarce is not the technology, but the underlying equity itself.

Why Is Bitcoin Down Today? What the Hawkish FOMC Means for SpaceX, Gold and Nasdaq
Why is Bitcoin down today? A hawkish FOMC pressured crypto and gold, while SpaceX surged to a $2.5 trillion valuation and Nasdaq gained attention. Here's what happened and why traders are looking beyond Bitcoin.
The AI gamble of mining companies: Valuations enter a phase of differentiation, and it's hard to turn the tide
This gamble of transforming into AI is testing the financial strength and execution capability of mining companies.
A letter from Alliance to entrepreneurs: Written on the occasion of Cursor selling for 60 billion dollars
Great companies are forged before they become obvious.
Stablecoins Finally Find Real Returns: On-Chain Reinsurance Re Explained | Interview with Re Founder Karan Saroya
This on-chain reinsurance platform absorbs stablecoins from DeFi, uses them as collateral to underwrite for American insurance companies, collects premiums, and returns the profits to on-chain depositors.
The impossible triangle is simply a pseudo problem
A long time ago, the cryptocurrency industry found its true purpose. But ironically, the path it built for this purpose excluded almost everyone who would actually use it.
Will MicroStrategy fall into a death spiral? What will the macro trend be in the second half of the year?
The cryptocurrency industry may gradually shift from the hype of native altcoins to real asset tokenization, on-chain machine economy, and a more mature industrialization phase.
Blockchain Capital Partner: The Core Secret of Arbitrage
On cold starts, breaking the circle, and the toughest hurdle for founders to overcome.
Customer Support:@weikecs
Business Cooperation:@weikecs
Quant Trading & MM:bd@weex.com
VIP Program:support@weex.com

